Civometry calculation · HMRC thresholds, ONS prices and earnings
Fiscal drag
The personal allowance and the higher rate threshold have been fixed in cash terms since 6 April 2021, with the freeze legislated to 5 April 2028. When prices and pay rise and thresholds do not, more income is taxed and more of it at the higher rate without any rate changing. This page shows the thresholds as set in law and what they would be had they risen with prices or with earnings.
The thresholds today against the freeze
| Threshold | Set in law | If it had risen with CPI | If it had risen with average earnings | Real change since 6 April 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal allowance | £12,570 | £16,315 | £16,376 | -23.0% |
| Higher rate threshold | £50,270 | £65,246 | £65,490 | -23.0% |
CPI: Consumer Prices Index 110.1 in April 2021 to 142.9 in July 2026 (+29.8%). Earnings: Average weekly pay £578 in 2021 Q2 to £753 in 2026 Q2 (+30.3%). Formula: threshold × (index now ÷ index at the start of the freeze).
Government baseline
When the Labour 2024– government took office on 5 July 2024, CPI stood at 133.8 (July 2024), so the inflation-adjusted personal allowance was already £15,276 against the £12,570 set in law. The freeze was set by earlier governments; the current government has kept it.
Thresholds by tax year
| Tax year | Personal allowance | Higher rate threshold |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | £8,105 | £42,475 |
| 2013-14 | £9,440 | £41,450 |
| 2014-15 | £10,000 | £41,865 |
| 2015-16 | £10,600 | £42,385 |
| 2016-17 | £11,000 | £43,000 |
| 2017-18 | £11,500 | £45,000 |
| 2018-19 | £11,850 | £46,350 |
| 2019-20 | £12,500 | £50,000 |
| 2020-21 | £12,500 | £50,000 |
| 2021-22 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
| 2022-23 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
| 2023-24 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
| 2024-25 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
| 2025-26 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
| 2026-27 | £12,570 | £50,270 |
England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland sets its own bands above the personal allowance. The higher rate threshold is the personal allowance plus the basic rate limit.
What this is and is not
This is a Civometry calculation, labelled as such, not an official statistic. It says what the thresholds would be under two stated indexation rules; it does not estimate how many people moved into a tax band or the revenue raised, which HMRC and the OBR publish on their own bases. Sources: