Civometry

68 series of 337

Which movements are speeding up, and which are slowing?

The pace of a movement is not its direction. A series can be rising while each rise is smaller than the last, and falling while each fall is larger. These are the series whose last three published moves all went one way and changed size in one direction throughout.

33 series are moving further each period (27 of them rising, 6 falling) and 35 are moving less each period (24 rising, 11 falling). Three moves is a short window: the table gives the size of each one so a reader can see how much of the pattern rests on the latest figure.

Moving further each period 33 series

SeriesDirectionThree moves, oldest firstLatestIn its historyPublished
Asylum refusals by nationalityHome Officefallingquarterly−1,000 · −2,370 · −5,286to 2026 Q212,9702026 Q2Higher than 79% of 102 periodseach move larger than the one before27 August 2026
Average Band D council taxMHCLGrisingannual+99.3 · +105.9 · +109.2to Year ending March 2026£2,280Year ending March 202615 periods since Year ending March 2012each move larger than the one before25 March 2026
Average primary class sizeDepartment for Educationfallingannual0.0 · −0.2 · −0.3to 2025/26 academic year26.12025/26 academic year11 periods since 2015/16 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Average secondary class sizeDepartment for Educationrisingannual+0.1 · +0.1 · +0.1to 2025/26 academic year22.62025/26 academic year11 periods since 2015/16 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Borrowing forecasts, £ billionOBRrisingannual+6.9 · +7.6 · +18.0to Year ending March 2025£152.7bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 96% of 55 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Carer's Allowance expenditureDWPrisingannual+175.0 · +488.0 · +501.5to Year ending March 2025£4.2bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Central government receiptsONSrisingmonthly+2,597 · +5,683 · +10,219to July 2026£104.3bnJuly 2026Higher than 99% of 352 periodseach move larger than the one before20 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: health (division 06)ONSrisingmonthly+0.4 · +0.5 · +0.6to July 2026143.9July 2026Higher than 100% of 463 periodseach move larger than the one before18 August 2026
Council spending on servicesMHCLGrisingannual+6,430.2 · +10,272.3 · +10,480.6to Year ending March 2025£134.2bnYear ending March 20258 periods since Year ending March 2018each move larger than the one before13 August 2026
Custody rateMinistry of Justicerisingannual+0.3 · +0.4 · +0.6to Year ending March 20267.5%Year ending March 202611 periods since Year ending March 2016each move larger than the one before30 July 2026
Disability benefits caseloadDWPrisingannual+364,000 · +457,000 · +573,000to Year ending March 20256,531,000Year ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 52 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Disability benefits expenditureDWPrisingannual+3,098.4 · +6,039.4 · +6,196.8to Year ending March 2025£41.7bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Drug offences (police-recorded)ONSrisingannual+3,028 · +22,901 · +25,330to Year ending March 2026231,130Year ending March 2026Higher than 88% of 24 periodseach move larger than the one before23 July 2026
Homicide (police-recorded)ONSfallingannual−14 · −28 · −40to Year ending March 2026499Year ending March 2026Higher than 60% of 128 periodseach move larger than the one before23 July 2026
Housing support expenditureDWPrisingannual+202.7 · +2,460.3 · +3,829.8to Year ending March 2025£36bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Incapacity benefits caseloadDWPrisingannual+190,000 · +219,000 · +258,000to Year ending March 20253,549,000Year ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Incapacity benefits expenditureDWPrisingannual+736.3 · +3,915.5 · +4,344.2to Year ending March 2025£29.7bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Pension Credit expenditureDWPrisingannual+100.9 · +531.8 · +540.6to Year ending March 2025£6bnYear ending March 2025Higher than 86% of 77 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Public sector expenditure on servicesHM Treasuryrisingannual+37,975 · +51,475 · +61,196to Year ending March 2026£1.23tnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Public sector net borrowingONSrisingmonthly+4,142 · +6,201 · +10,984to July 2026-£1.8bnJuly 2026Higher than 78% of 403 periodseach move larger than the one before20 August 2026
Pupils in primary school classesDepartment for Educationfallingannual−38,923 · −49,383 · −110,073to 2025/26 academic year3,974,1322025/26 academic year11 periods since 2015/16 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Pupils persistently absentDepartment for Educationfallingannual−74,573 · −82,281 · −146,585to 2024/25 academic year1,340,4372024/25 academic year18 periods since 2006/07 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Pupils with an education, health and care planDepartment for Educationrisingannual+45,183 · +48,286 · +55,907to 2025/26 academic year538,5472025/26 academic year11 periods since 2015/16 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Pupils with an EHC plan, shareDepartment for Educationrisingannual+0.5 · +0.6 · +0.7to 2025/26 academic year6%2025/26 academic year11 periods since 2015/16 academic yeareach move larger than the one before4 August 2026
Spending on Cultural servicesHM Treasuryrisingannual+66 · +125 · +654to Year ending March 2026£5.4bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on family benefits, income support, Universal Credit and tax creditsHM Treasuryrisingannual+8,162 · +9,455 · +10,648to Year ending March 2026£84.3bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on Housing and community amenities n.e.c.HM Treasuryrisingannual+147 · +209 · +506to Year ending March 2026£1.3bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on Pollution abatementHM Treasuryrisingannual+309 · +597 · +838to Year ending March 2026£2.2bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on prisonsHM Treasuryrisingannual+499 · +791 · +1,006to Year ending March 2026£8.4bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on Social exclusion n.e.c.HM Treasuryrisingannual+8,643 · +10,159 · +10,217to Year ending March 2026£86.8bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move larger than the one before2 September 2026
State Pension caseloadDWPrisingannual+140,000 · +179,000 · +211,000to Year ending March 202512,987,000Year ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 70 periodseach move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Universal Credit caseloadDWPrisingannual+180,000 · +477,000 · +767,000to Year ending March 20255,473,000Year ending March 20256 periods since Year ending March 2020each move larger than the one before26 March 2026
Vehicle offences (police-recorded)ONSfallingannual−25,727 · −29,830 · −37,781to Year ending March 2026312,250Year ending March 2026Higher than 4% of 24 periodseach move larger than the one before23 July 2026

Moving less each period 35 series

SeriesDirectionThree moves, oldest firstLatestIn its historyPublished
Adult proven reoffending rateMinistry of Justicerisingquarterly+0.7 · +0.6 · +0.3to 2024 Q329.7%2024 Q3Higher than 100% of 36 periodseach move smaller than the one before30 July 2026
Adult social care precept in the average Band D billMHCLGrisingannual+7.9 · +2.1 · +1.7to Year ending March 2026£34Year ending March 20264 periods since Year ending March 2023each move smaller than the one before25 March 2026
Adult social care precept, total raised in EnglandMHCLGrisingannual+153.3 · +47.9 · +44.4to Year ending March 2026£653.6mYear ending March 20264 periods since Year ending March 2023each move smaller than the one before25 March 2026
Asylum backlogHome Officefallingannual−33,990 · −26,386 · −24,258to Year ending June 202640,168Year ending June 202618 periods since 2010each move smaller than the one before27 August 2026
Asylum-related returnsHome Officerisingannual+1,504 · +1,364 · +172to Year ending June 202612,568Year ending June 202618 periods since 2010each move smaller than the one before27 August 2026
Average house priceHM Land Registryrisingmonthly+1,797 · +1,426 · +148to June 2026£272,188June 2026Higher than 100% of 699 periodseach move smaller than the one before20 August 2026
Corporation Tax receiptsHMRCrisingannual+7,764 · +5,257 · +4,190to Year ending March 2026£95.1bnYear ending March 2026Higher than 100% of 20 periodseach move smaller than the one before21 August 2026
Criminal damage and arson (police-recorded)ONSfallingannual−33,909 · −33,373 · −6,177to Year ending March 2026456,843Year ending March 2026Higher than 4% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before23 July 2026
Debt interest as a share of GDPHM Treasuryfallingannual−0.3 · −0.3 · −0.1to Year ending March 20264.2%Year ending March 2026Higher than 88% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Earmarked council reservesMHCLGfallingannual−5,226.1 · −1,044.7 · −753.7to Year ending March 2025£25bnYear ending March 20258 periods since Year ending March 2018each move smaller than the one before13 August 2026
Employment forecastsOBRrisingannual+402,250.0 · +393,750.0 · +264,500.0to 202433,615,500202416 periods since 2009each move smaller than the one before26 March 2026
Median weekly pay, full-time employees, by area of residenceONSrisingannual+45.2 · +41.3 · +38.3to 2025£7672025Higher than 100% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before23 October 2025
NHS waits of more than a yearNHS Englandrisingmonthly+5,377 · +4,953 · +977to June 2026105,711June 2026Higher than 6% of 63 periodseach move smaller than the one before13 August 2026
Petrol pump priceDESNZfallingweekly−0.3 · −0.2 · 0.0to Week beginning 31 August 2026161.6pWeek beginning 31 August 2026Higher than 97% of 1213 periodseach move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Police-recorded crime (excluding fraud)ONSfallingannual−175,181 · −95,427 · −72,220to Year ending March 20265,235,213Year ending March 2026Higher than 87% of 129 periodseach move smaller than the one before23 July 2026
ProsecutionsMinistry of Justicerisingannual+82,604 · +73,493 · +16,063to Year ending March 20261,360,615Year ending March 20269 periods since Year ending March 2018each move smaller than the one before30 July 2026
Public order offences (police-recorded)ONSfallingannual−103,826 · −33,191 · −3,880to Year ending March 2026449,426Year ending March 2026Higher than 75% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before23 July 2026
Public sector debt interest, real termsHM Treasuryfallingannual−10.7 · −6.1 · −0.6to Year ending March 2026£130.3bnYear ending March 2026Higher than 88% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Receipts forecasts, £ billionOBRrisingannual+112.9 · +62.6 · +43.0to Year ending March 2025£1.14tnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 36 periodseach move smaller than the one before26 March 2026
Severe absenceDepartment for Educationrisingannual+0.4 · +0.3 · +0.1to 2024/25 academic year2.4%2024/25 academic year18 periods since 2006/07 academic yeareach move smaller than the one before4 August 2026
Small boat arrivals (weekly)Home Officefallingweekly−460 · −311 · −155to Week ending 23 August 2026250Week ending 23 August 2026Higher than 52% of 451 periodseach move smaller than the one before28 August 2026
Spending forecasts, £ billionOBRrisingannual+119.8 · +70.1 · +61.0to Year ending March 2025£1.29tnYear ending March 2025Higher than 100% of 36 periodseach move smaller than the one before26 March 2026
Spending on CommunicationHM Treasuryrisingannual+262 · +234 · +217to Year ending March 2026£1.2bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on Economic affairs n.e.c.HM Treasuryrisingannual+79 · +48 · +32to Year ending March 2026£918mYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on family and childrenHM Treasuryrisingannual+3,278 · +1,870 · +751to Year ending March 2026£35.5bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on Family and childrenHM Treasuryrisingannual+3,278 · +1,870 · +751to Year ending March 2026£35.5bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on family benefits, income support and tax creditsHM Treasuryrisingannual+1,277 · +1,045 · +338to Year ending March 2026£17.3bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on General economic, commercial and labour affairsHM Treasuryfallingannual−1,821 · −1,716 · −620to Year ending March 2026£17.9bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on housing developmentHM Treasuryrisingannual+2,632 · +691 · +242to Year ending March 2026£14.9bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on local authority housingHM Treasuryrisingannual+1,991 · +479 · +447to Year ending March 2026£12bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on sickness and disabilityHM Treasuryrisingannual+10,030 · +8,135 · +333to Year ending March 2026£84.3bnYear ending March 20266 periods since Year ending March 2021each move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Spending on social protectionHM Treasuryrisingannual+43.0 · +21.1 · +21.0to Year ending March 2026£407.3bnYear ending March 2026Higher than 100% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before2 September 2026
Tobacco duty receiptsHMRCfallingannual−1,200 · −877 · −360to Year ending March 2026£7.6bnYear ending March 2026Higher than 5% of 20 periodseach move smaller than the one before21 August 2026
VAT forecastsOBRrisingannual+16.7 · +8.2 · +5.0to Year ending March 2025£173.3bnYear ending March 202517 periods since Year ending March 2009each move smaller than the one before26 March 2026
Voluntary returnsHome Officerisingannual+1,556 · +1,400 · +1,129to Year ending June 202630,936Year ending June 2026Higher than 88% of 24 periodseach move smaller than the one before27 August 2026

How the pace is judged

Each move is one published period against the one before it, in the measure’s own unit — not as a percentage, so a series whose level is growing does not count as speeding up simply because the same percentage is a larger number. All three moves must go the same way; a move of exactly zero disqualifies the series. Only periods since the series’ last methodology break are used. A series with fewer than four published periods cannot be judged and is not listed.

Speeding up is not the same as being high, and slowing is not the same as reversing: a series that has slowed is still moving in the same direction. A reversal appears on trend breaks instead.

Related: runs and streaks · what is changing · what changed this month.